Forecasting the size and effects of emigration and remittances in four Western-Balkan countries

The project aims to forecast the size and effects of remittances and emigration in 4 Western-Balkan (WB) countries, through a novel method: Delphi questionnaire.

In particular, the project has the following tasks: 1) to provide a literature overview of forecasting remittances and emigration; 2) to collect data through a Delphi questionnaire from economic experts and remittance-receivers; 3) to forecast remittances and emigration based on the data obtained in (2); 4) provide policy recommendations based on the forecasted trends; and 5) to compare forecasted trends among the 4 countries.

 

Donor: Regional Research Promotion Program

Project partners: ACSER Albania, FREN Serbia, Individual researcher Kosovo

Duration: 6 months (2016)

 

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Project meeting, Istanbul, Turkey, 27-30 October 2016 – Аgenda – Gallery

Round table “The future of remittances and emigration: Can they be forecast?”, 22 November 2016, Faculty of Economics, Prilep – Invitation and agenda – Gallery

Infographs – Macedonia – Serbia – Albania – Kosovo

Media appearance – MRT – Telma – Nova Makedonija

Web site

Forecasting results – Маcedonia – Serbia – Аlbania – Коsovо

Policy study

 

Migration as social protection: Analysis of Macedonian, Albanian and Serbian remittance-receiving households

The objective of the research is to investigate if remittances sent to Macedonia, Albania and Serbia serve social protection for household members left behind.

In particular, we will analyse if and how remittances determine/influence social condition (stability or vulnerability) of the household, the latter being described through an index composition of the income level, employment status, nourishment, health and housing conditions. For the purpose of the study, we aim at defining social stability/vulnerability not in traditional terms – only as “dollar a day” – but rather in terms of household’s ability to meet their basic needs aside income: nutrition, health services, housing, leisure and the like. This touches upon Green’s (2014) recent note that “being poor and sick is very different from being poor and healthy” and defines social stability in this multidimensional framework.

The key tasks include:

  • developing a literature overview linking remittances to social protection and social vulnerability;
  • devising an indicator of social vulnerability;
  • econometric investigation of the causal links between remittances and social vulnerability;
  • deeper qualitative investigation through interviews of the linkages between and contexts of the two phenomena (remittances and social vulnerability);
  • devising policy proposals;
  • wide communication with the policymakers and the public.

 

Donor: Regional Research Promotion Program

Duration: 2 years (2014-2016)

 

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Project meeting, Rome 2-5 April 2015 – Agenda – Gallery

Media appearance – Ekonomski horizonti – RevolucionerMK

RRPP Annual conference presentation, Ohrid 28-29 May 2015 – Resources

Round table, 10 June 2015 – Invitation – Agenda – Gallery – Presentation

International Conference on Eurasian Economies, 9-11 September 2015, Kazan Russia – Presentation – Proceedings

Training & Project meeting, Amsterdam 16-20 March 2016 – Agenda – Gallery 1 2

Workshop “Migration and its Consequences for Albanian Households”, Elbasan, Albania, 8 September 2016 – Agenda

EBES International Conference, Vienna, Austria, 28-30 September 2016 – Picture

Economic forum, Skopje, 22 September 2016 – Agenda – Gallery

 

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Policy briefs – Macedonia – Albania – Serbia

International book “Migration as social protection”

Journal article in International Migration

 

Simulation of a voucher policy for improving the social condition of individual remittance receivers in Macedonia

The purpose of the study is to develop a simulation of potential voucher system for social protection of individual members of the households receiving remittances in Macedonia.

Specific objectives:

– To conduct analysis for Macedonia at the individual level (using the DotM Remittance Survey 2008)

– To develop an econometric model;

– To simulate the effects of potential voucher for protection of socially vulnerable individual recipients of remittances by simulating the effects on the health indicator of the recipient.

 

Donor: Partnership for Economic Policies

Duration: 2014-2015 (1 year)

 

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Policy brief – ENG – MK

Working paper

Policy conference – Invitation – Gallery

Journal paper

 

Youth self-employment in households receiving remittances in Macedonia

This project aims to explore if remittances may be used to support the entrepreneurial activities of unemployed youth in households receiving remittances, in an environment of global economic crisis, tightened credit conditions, lack of venture capital financing and the malfunctioning labor market.

Low job creation and high unemployment are the most important problems of Macedonia. The youth unemployment rate of 55% remains persistently high. On the other hand, Macedonia receives remittances of outward migration in the amount of above 20% of GDP annually. Their usage, however, remains largely unknown. This proposed research aims to explore if remittances may be used to support the entrepreneurial activities of unemployed youth in households receiving remittances, in an environment of global economic crisis, tightened credit conditions, lack of venture capital financing and the malfunctioning labor market. We will use the Remittances Survey conducted in September/October 2012 to explore the probability that a young person will enter self-employment if his/her household receives remittance. We propose two techniques: i) propensity score matching, so as to find similar, in characteristics, non-receiving households, as those receiving remittance; and ii) instrumental variables approach, so as to account for the potential endogeneity of remittances with respect to the decision to establish own firm. We expect that our findings would enable us to propose policy recommendations in the fiscal, social, and labor-market sphere, aimed at channeling the large amount of remittances in Macedonia into generating jobs for youth.

 

Provider: International Development Research Center

Duration: 2013-2014 (1 year)

 

Project’s web site