Nearly half of government promises show progress, but sectoral gaps remain large

KOMPAS: Monitoring of Government Promises (2024-2028) : findings from the first two years

Skopje, 1 7 June 202 6

Finance Think, in partnership with the Macedonian Center for Civic Education, the Macedonian Medical Association – Association for Intersectoral Cooperation and the Youth Educational Forum, presents the upgraded KOMPAS monitoring framework for systematic monitoring of the implementation of government promises for the period 2024–2028 . This framework builds on the previous version that mapped economic progress in the period 2020–2024.

The “COMPASS” platform ( https://kompas.financethink.mk ) monitors the implementation of a total of 142 promises , divided into five priority areas : economy and social issues, education, health, youth and gender equality .

Overall progress: Almost half of government pledges show progress, but disparities between sectors remain large

After two years, KOMPAS registers a mixed, yet positive picture at the overall level. Almost half of the pledges (48%) show some progress – 25 have been fully implemented (18%, an improvement of 5 pp compared to the previous year), and 43 are on track to be fulfilled (30%). However, 55 pledges (39%) still show no progress, 9 (6%) are moving in the opposite direction, and for 10 (7%) there is still not enough public data to assess. (Chart 1)

Behind this average picture lie deep disparities between areas. Education is the undisputed leader – 32% fully met and 58% on track – with strong momentum supported by stable budgeting and a functional legal framework. At the opposite end, gender equality registers zero. fulfillment second consecutive year – not a single fulfilled promise, not a single one on the way to fulfillment. The socio-economic domain shows a divided picture: macroeconomic indicators are moving in a satisfactory direction, but socio-economic policies are systematically lagging behind. Health and youth policies are in the middle, with moderate progress accompanied by significant unfulfilled commitments.

Graph 1: Compliance by area

Socio-economic policies: Partial progress, but with potential risks

Of the 44 measurable promises, 36% have a positive trajectory – 11% fully fulfilled and 25% on track to be fulfilled, compared to 64% that are either stagnant or moving in the wrong direction. Behind this average picture lie two sub-areas with opposing dynamics.

Macroeconomic indicators overall provide a satisfactory picture – 8 out of 11 indicators are in a positive direction, GDP growth is stable, exports are recovering, unemployment is declining and the banking system is liquid. However, there are important exceptions here too. Inflation remains persistently high (4.1% in 2025 against the promised 2.5%), and the decline in foreign direct investment is a warning that without an updated strategy for attracting, competitiveness is slowly declining. There is mild consolidation in public finances, and public debt in 2025 is moving below the promised limit. However, the budget deficit remains above the promised values, and the crisis in the Middle East in 2026 has further increased fiscal risks. The increase in pensions is a fulfilled promise, but with fiscal implications that reinforce the need for a more substantial pension reform. The labor market and business environment are showing progress, but at a slow pace. The promise of 55,000 new jobs is at ~40% realization (22,064 newly created jobs), but the pace slowed in 2025 – ~9,000 against the required ~13,750 annually. At the same time, the shadow economy has grown, and despite the introduction of e-invoices, a systematic approach to formalization is lacking.

Socio-economic policies , however, drag the overall result down. Benefits for IT companies, freelancers and the innovative sector remain only on paper, and the promise of a special tax for multinationals has been quietly abandoned in favor of a global minimum tax – without public recognition. Even more worrying are the promises that directly affect living standards: social benefits for the most vulnerable categories are systematically lagging behind, capital investments have followed the same pattern for years – high projections, cuts, underperformance – and the agriculture budget has been declining for the third year in a row.

An additional challenge is compliance with the real needs of citizens. According to Finance’s “Quality of Life” survey, nursing homes are the most inaccessible public service according to citizens – with a deterioration compared to the previous year – and the promise to build them has no public indicators for implementation. Promises for capital investments and expansion of care capacities enjoy the highest support – over 70% – but are also among those with the lowest implementation. In contrast, the two fulfilled promises – the increase in pensions and the growth of salaries in public administration – have low or divided support among citizens. This points to the need for the Government to reassess its priorities: to revise the promises that citizens do not recognize as relevant, and to accelerate those that enjoy the highest public support.

Education: strong momentum, but higher education reform awaits

Education is the area with the strongest implementation – 12 fulfilled promises (32%) and 22 on track (58%) – and that is no coincidence. The three key conditions for success are present: a functional legal framework, clear and measurable indicators, and budget continuity across multiple annual cycles. The results are concrete and visible.

Dual education is perhaps the most successful story: the number of companies involved in practical training has grown from 560 in 2024 to 875 in 2026 , with the support of 7 regional centers. The inclusion of students with disabilities and vulnerable groups is receiving real budgetary support – funds have almost doubled (from 520 to 927 million denars), and the number of educational assistants has increased from 1,015 to 1,478. Infrastructure investments in schools and sports halls are recording a stable trend, and the reconstruction of student dormitories is receiving a serious budgetary impulse (489 million denars planned for 2026, compared to only 31 million in 2024).

But the deep reform of higher education remains blocked . New laws on higher education have not yet been adopted, and without them, neither mandatory internships, nor double degrees, nor international competitiveness can be realized. The science budget is growing nominally, but total research and development spending remains at only 0.36–0.40% of GDP – far behind the planned 1%. At the same time, despite all the positive developments, the education budget has not yet reached the promised threshold of 5% of GDP, but remains at 3.8%.

Health : Limited progress with a few significant displacements

Of the 31 monitored measures in healthcare, four have been fully implemented, two partially, and two are in the initial phase of implementation – for most of the rest, there is currently insufficient evidence of significant progress. The most visible results have been achieved in personnel policy and access to certain healthcare services : the employment of healthcare workers who had been engaged for years under a contract for work has begun, the capitation point for family doctors has been increased, and economic directors in public healthcare institutions have been abolished. Up to six free attempts at in-vitro fertilization have been made possible at the expense of the Health Insurance Fund. In the area of investments, activities have been launched for the reconstruction of several healthcare institutions and the procurement of medical equipment, a tender for 100 new emergency medical vehicles has been announced, and the positive list of medicines with facilitated reimbursement processes has been expanded.

However , the reforms with deeper systemic effects everything take place slower from expected . No everything they notice more significant improvements in digitalization on healthcare , reduction on the administrative ones procedures , management with the hospital system , the reduction on the lists on waiting or the improvement on availability to specialist health services . Hence , it can yes everything conclude that the past year was marked with solving on part from the long-standing personnel and organizational problems with​ realization on a few specific measures with direct effect on citizens . However , the key structural reforms which need yes provide A more efficient , accessible and high-quality healthcare system still remains a challenge.

Youth: institutional progress, insufficient implementation of specific measures

31 promises were monitored , of which 4 were fulfilled , 5 are on track to be fulfilled , and 22 were not fulfilled . In the second year of the mandate, youth policies delivered two concrete and visible promises that were in the unfulfilled category after the first year. The 250 euro vouchers for electronic devices for students were paid in 2025, and the “Buy a House for Youth” project was operationalized – subsidizing a monthly installment for young couples moving to the countryside. These two fulfilled promises have significant symbolic weight and high popularity among young people.

However, behind these successes, structural challenges remain unresolved. The youth employment rate (15–29 years) fell to 34.6% in Q1-2026 after reaching 36.1% in 2025 – the promise of 70,000 new jobs for youth is in the opposite direction of fulfillment. Even more worrying is that not a single digital skills training was implemented in 2025, after 735 trained in 2024.

The number of local youth centers – a key infrastructure for the implementation of youth policies – has stagnated at 14, against the target of 42 envisaged by the National Youth Strategy 2023–2027. New centers are opening, but they are closing just as often. The five unfulfilled promises – including reduced working hours for students, the M-application for youth standards and free internet in educational institutions – directly affect the daily lives of young people and have not seen even minimal visible progress after two years.

The total action is supported from The government on Switzerland through Civic Mobility . Civic mobilitas is a project on The government on Switzerland , which it implemented by MCIC, NIRAS and FCG. The opinions which everything expressed here no necessary them reflect the attitudes on The Swiss Government , Civics mobility or the organizations what me implement .

Memorandum of Understanding with the Commission for Protection of Competition

Today, we signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Commission for Protection of Competition.

Through this Memorandum, we establish a framework for cooperation aimed at:

✅ enhancing the transparency and accessibility of state aid data;
✅ supporting the process of alignment with EU state aid regulations;
✅ strengthening regional cooperation and the exchange of good practices.

As part of this cooperation, Finance Think and the WEBecon network will continue working on the development of the regional state aid platform, as well as analyses and initiatives that contribute to greater transparency, accountability, and evidence-based policymaking.

We believe that cooperation between institutions and the research community is essential for improving the design, implementation, and monitoring of state aid policies.

#StateAid #Transparency #CompetitionPolicy #WesternBalkans #FinanceThink #WEBecon

Open Society Foundations Western Balkans

Presentation at UN Women’s conference

Today we participated in the conference “Transforming Care Systems in North Macedonia through an Inclusive, Gender-Responsive Approach,” organized by UN Women Skopje, in partnership with national institutions and with the support of the British Embassy Skopje.

The conference focused on the 📖 study “Transforming Care Systems in North Macedonia: Gender, Care Needs, and Financing Pathways for an Inclusive Care Economy,” prepared by Finance Think for UN Women.

📌 Investing in the care economy is not only a social policy priority — it is an investment in higher employment, greater economic inclusion, and more sustainable development.

#TransformCare #GenderEquality #CareEconomy

In the podcast “Where Is the Money?”, Blagica Petreski discusses current economic topics

IMF and World Bank on the global and Macedonian economy

The Spring Meetings in Washington of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have concluded.
The global economy is slowing down. Governments face major challenges. Meanwhile, under the radar of the Macedonian public, the IMF Mission’s report on the Macedonian economy passed with little attention.

In the latest episode of the podcast “Where Is the Money?”, Blagica Petreski speaks with Goran Temenugov about where both the global and the Macedonian economy are heading.

Webinar on State Aid Registry in Montenegro

Today we successfully held a webinar focused on Montenegro’s experience in establishing a state aid register — an important step towards enhanced transparency and more effective monitoring of state aid in the region.
🎤 Many thanks to Siniša Milačić Agencija za zaštitu konkurencije
for the excellent presentation and valuable insights on:
✔ institutional setup
✔ data collection and publication practices
✔ implementation process
✔ key challenges and lessons learned
👏 We also thank all participants from across the region for the active discussion and exchange of experiences.
This webinar is part of ongoing efforts to strengthen institutional capacities and regional cooperation on state aid in the Western Balkans.

FT Opinion 69 on Inflation in the Month Following the Outbreak of the Military Conflict Between the US/Israel and Iran

The State Statistical Office has released the data on price developments for March 2026, which marks the first month following the outbreak of the military conflict between the United States/Israel and Iran.

According to these data, prices increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis and by 4.9% on an annual basis.

Given the heightened expectations of accelerating price growth driven by the sharp increase in global crude oil prices, this brief examines whether this oil shock has evolved into a broader price shock, that is, whether it has spilled over into the general price level.

Signs indicating a spillover of the oil shock to other prices

On a monthly basis, prices showed some stabilization, declining by 0.7% in January 2026 compared to December 2025, followed by a modest increase of 0.2% in February 2026 relative to the previous month. In this context, the 0.7% increase in prices in March compared to February 2026 may signal a mild acceleration of inflation, particularly given that—had the military conflict in Iran not occurred—expectations were for inflation to continue on a path of further moderation. However, such monthly dynamics are not dramatically higher than those observed during 2025 (Chart 1).

Chart 1 – Monthly inflation dynamics

Source: SSO.

However, from this general picture, two groups stand out (Chart 2):
i) Transport (3.4%), within which the price of fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment increased by 11.4% in March compared to February 2026; and
ii) Alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and narcotics (3.2%), entirely driven by the increase in tobacco prices (4.3%).

While the price increase in the first group is fully a reflection of the military conflict in Iran, the second group is unrelated to it. The direct effect of higher crude oil prices is most clearly observed through the sharp increase in liquid fuels (18.7%), although its overall weight is relatively small, as the broader category of Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels recorded only a modest price increase of 0.2%.

Chart 2 – Monthly dynamics of selected inflation components

Source: SSO.

Similarly, within the food category, a notable monthly increase is observed in oils (2.2%), likely driven primarily by reduced global supply of palm oil (due to adverse weather conditions) and sunflower oil (due to the war in Ukraine), as well as higher transport costs resulting from rising oil prices.

Based on the monthly inflation dynamics, there is a modest—one could say limited but not negligible—pass-through effect from global oil prices to the overall price level. This is in line with our earlier estimates presented in Policy Brief No. 78: How much will the global oil shock pass through to the domestic economy? (10 March 2026), which suggest that a 10% increase in oil prices leads to an additional increase in the overall price level of about 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points in the short run, i.e., within the first 1–3 months following the shock.

This effect reflects both the direct impact of petroleum products in the consumption basket and the indirect impact through transport costs and certain limited product groups.

Signs that may be misinterpreted as spillovers of the oil shock

At first glance, the annual inflation rate of 4.9% in March 2026 appears concerning, as it represents an acceleration compared to March 2025 and deviates from expectations of a gradual decline toward around 3%.

However, there is a risk that these data may be misinterpreted as evidence of a broader spillover of the oil shock into the general price level, which is not supported by the underlying dynamics. A comparison with March 2025 reveals a significantly low base, resulting from the Easter–Ramadan administrative measures that froze margins and prices of food, beverages, and household chemical products, which were in effect from 20 February to the end of April 2025 (see Chart 3).

Chart 3 – Annual inflation dynamics

Source: SSO.

This low base effect is particularly evident in food prices (see Chart 4), which increased by a substantial 7.5% year-on-year in March 2026, while prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco rose by 8.8%. For other groups that exhibit relatively high annual growth in March 2026 but display stable monthly dynamics, the increase reflects a cumulative effect (from April 2025 through March 2026), which we previously assessed in earlier short analyses (e.g., FT Opinion No. 67 on minimum wages, productivity, inflation, and informal employment, 18 February 2026) as being driven by rising incomes in the economy.

Chart 4 – Annual dynamics of selected inflation components

Source: SSO.

Although the oil shock is already clearly visible in fuel prices and transport costs, there is, for now, no evidence that it has spilled over into broader, systemic inflation. If the annual rate of 4.9% is interpreted as an alarm signal, it would be misleading, as it largely reflects a low base effect created by the administrative price freeze in the same period last year. Nevertheless, the current monthly increase is not negligible and, if sustained, could quickly evolve into broader inflationary pressures through second-round effects—initially in food products and subsequently across the wider consumption basket.

In conclusion, the current increase in prices primarily reflects the economy’s direct exposure to the oil shock, without clear signs of widespread spillovers. However, this stability is fragile: if energy prices remain elevated and continue to rise, the risk of a broader inflationary wave—through transport costs and inflation expectations—will increase significantly. Therefore, the current data do not justify panic, but neither do they allow for complacency. Close monitoring of monthly dynamics will be crucial in the coming months. In this context, strictly targeted measures to mitigate the impact on the most affected households and firms should be prepared and ready for rapid and effective deployment should the price shock intensify.

According to our earlier estimates (see FT Opinion No. 68 on the inflationary effects of the energy shock, 26 March 2026), if the conflict persists and/or escalates, broader-based effects could begin to materialize as early as April, with more pronounced intensity from June onward.

 

Round table on the public procurement in municipalities

Today in Prilep, together with representatives of local institutions, civil society, and the business community, we discussed and addressed several important questions:

💰 Who wins municipal tenders?
🤝 Is there sufficient competition?
📊 Are citizens of Prilep and Krushevo getting value for money?
💬 Open discussion. Real questions.