The composite index for the future economic activity is a brand new product of Finance Think. It is based on combining indicators considered to precede economic activity with a time lag of about six months ahead. Some indicators that this index combines are as follows: the number of persons register for unemployment compensation; issued building permits; index of new orders in manufacturing industry; loans extended to firms; imports of machinery and equipment and the like.


Source: Calculation of Finance Think, based on data from the State Statistical Office, National Bank of Macedonia, Ministry of Finance, Employment Agency, Macedonian Stock Exchange

Diffusion index of future economic activity is an indicator of the proportion of the components of the composite index of future economic activity, which in the month grew.


Source: Calculation of Finance Think, based on the Leading Composite Index

The calculated series is available on request.

The policy study “Leading composite index produced by Finance Think: Forecasting power reassessed” is accessible here.