Budget revenues are projected to grow by 3.5%, calculated based on the budgeted revenues for 2025. That nominal growth is realistic—one could even say conservative—if for 2026 we expect real GDP growth of 3.8% and inflation of 2.5%.

However, the problem arises because the projection in the 2025 budget is unrealistic to achieve. Finance Think pointed this out already last year, and it is now evident from the fact that in the first nine months revenue realization stands at 67%, which is lower than what would be proportional for this stage of the year. This brings us to the conclusion that the 2026 budget once again projects revenue growth with an excessively high nominal increase.

In 2026, we should not expect a dramatic jump, but rather a moderate nominal growth of around 6%, in line with the real dynamics of the economy. Anything beyond that would be “cosmetics on paper,” which would only create pressure for the budget to be rebalanced in the first half of the year. The reason lies not only in economic conditions, but also in the fact that the fight against the grey economy and the enforcement of revenue collection—although showing some positive movement—still suffer from significant weaknesses.