In our Macro-Monitor published this Friday, based on #model calculations, we came out with a GDP projection for 2023 of 2.4% and an inflation projection of 8.9%. Both numbers are under significant #risks. The GDP projection is under downside risk, that is, according to current information, the probability of achieving a lower rate than this is higher, compared to the probability of achieving a higher rate. With #inflation, the uncertainty is in both directions, because the movements and sources of the pressures are difficult to predict, especially the geopolitical developments. However, for now, forecasts indicate that some price pressures will subside, reducing the likelihood of double-digit inflation in 2023.
On a global level, we already have a decline in the #prices of primary food products, which with a certain delay will be reflected on the domestic retail prices, and it is expected that we will also see a certain #stabilization and reduction in energy prices during 2023. Of course, it is important what steps we take domestically. Subsidizing electricity for the #food industry should have a positive effect on a lower inflation rate already in December, and also the #monetary policy, which is on the line of tightening since April this year, will exert its influence.